Identifying Emerging Risks

Board Perspectives: Risk Oversight, Issue 23 

Emerging risks can undermine strategies, disrupt operations and weaken enterprise value long before they become obvious. The real advantage comes from identifying these risks early, while they are still developing. This is especially important in today’s environment, where rapid shifts in technology, globalization, supply chains, geopolitics, resources and extreme events can quickly challenge assumptions that once seemed reliable.

To stay ahead, leaders need forward-looking judgment, a strong understanding of external trends, and the discipline to continually test whether long-held strategic assumptions still reflect reality. They also must be willing to confront uncomfortable possibilities, including risks that may arise from the organization’s own decisions. Practical steps include monitoring whether core assumptions are becoming outdated, scanning the broader risk landscape, and using scenario analysis to evaluate potential outcomes.

Key takeaways:

• Emerging risks may not be fully measurable, but they can still be anticipated.
• Strategy should be tested against changing external assumptions.
• Scenario planning helps reveal high-impact threats.